While the proc is random the law of large numbers will mean that over a large enough sample size your actual yield will be the same as the average proc rate. If you transmute 10 times then you can't rely on the 20% proc rate, once you pass 1000 though, you're average will start approaching the true rate of 1.2 bars per transmute. If you are in this for the long haul it then makes a lot of sense to use the average proc rate to calculate your profits, especially considering the fact that all the items involved sell really well.
I got a lucky 350 BoE drop just after hitting 120 about 48 hours after the expansion launched. Was able to sell it for 400k. I had chosen an alt on a different faction as a main this expansion, so I was glad to have more than the 25k I’d previously had. A couple days later I saw another 350 on the AH for 50k and flipped it for 300. That plus farming Monelite Ore as I do World Quest has me sitting on about 1mil.
Conclusion - Overall, I am looking forward to BfA but I do have my concerns. The mid and high level rare mats look like they are going to come from Mythic Dungeons and Raids. This could make it so that crafting alts basically need to be end game geared up characters and doing that content in order to produce anything usable. Gathering will work and I think it makes sense to prioritize that at the beginning of the xpac. The rest I am taking a wait and see approach this time around. There still is plenty of time between now and launch for the devs to make drastic changes to the material requirements and item level of any crafted item or consumable. Therefore, I don’t think we can call anything a real “winner” or “loser” yet. What do you think?
All of my gold came from everyone buying stuff at a really marked up price for instance BS 2h mace if it proced epic i was making at least 125k per one and i was making batchs of 10 to 15 it was like 25k for blue and 125k+ for epics at the time. And i was buying the ore for like 16g to 40g a pop so huge profit. Im still trying to figure out what im gunna do now to rebuild it will be a slow process now.